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Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Beryl
02L.Beryl A big blowup mentioned on the Weather Channel, I think it has a good chance.Not much convection, but maybe soon. New England may be in trouble next week... íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:53, 15 July 2006 (UTC) :There's a little shear, but I think it will lessen soon. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:53, 15 July 2006 (UTC) ::I changed the header to "East of North Carolina". --'Coredesat' talk. o.o;; 20:47, 15 July 2006 (UTC) :::Oh whoops! íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 22:11, 15 July 2006 (UTC) ::::It's in relatively favorible conditions. The GFS develops it, and it should miss NE. But it very well could be Beryl. -00:29, 16 July 2006 (UTC) :::::Right now it's non-tropical according to the Weather Channel. But still, it seems to be getting more organized. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 13:18, 16 July 2006 (UTC) From the TWO; "BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD." íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:23, 16 July 2006 (UTC) There seems to be three separate areas in this disturbance, but the northeastern most one seems to be dissipating. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:26, 16 July 2006 (UTC) :It's really organized now. I'd say INVEST by tonight. Tomorrow afternoon at the latest. Is it just me, or is this thing drifting southward? [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 17:40, 16 July 2006 (UTC) ::Steering currents are really weak in that area. It's got plenty of time to develop until the next front moves through and sweeps it out to sea. --'Coredesat' talk. o.o;; 19:49, 16 July 2006 (UTC) :::I can't believe they haven't declared it an Invest when the NHC says development is possible... CrazyC83 01:01, 17 July 2006 (UTC) ::::Oh no, it seems to be losing convection. AND IT WAS SO BEAUTIFUL!! [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 03:27, 17 July 2006 (UTC) Look! There is a very well defined surface low SE of boston now! Although it is being sheared pretty badly, It definitely looks like TD strengh. The convection off the carolinas is dwindling. -Winter123 03:49, 17 July 2006 (UTC) 97L.INVEST Finally! I guess they decided to designate the southern portion of the disturbance as an invest, not the northern part. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 13:39, 17 July 2006 (UTC) :Well, wrf and nogaps still develop it. wrf predicts a storm in 42 hrs, and nogaps a little later. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:20, 17 July 2006 (UTC) ::Yeah looks good for development now. Shear isn't very high and the sea is warm. COME ON BERYL!! ;) -- WmE 14:40, 17 July 2006 (UTC) :::This was long overdue; it should have been an Invest 24-36 hours ago. I'd give it a 60% chance of development - conditions change quite quickly in the subtropics. CrazyC83 15:30, 17 July 2006 (UTC) Come on, NHC, have you seen the low south of Nova Scotia? It is CLEARLY subtropical. It's a "non-tropical gale center" because it is LOOSELY attached to an old, DEAD front. They just don't want to name it because a storm hasn't formed there before in July. Bunch of pansies. Hopefully they will come to their sense in the post analysis, as I think STRONGLY feel that this should be the "Unnamed Subtropical Storm" of this year. I'd give it a 100% chance that it IS a subtropical storm right now. As for the southern part, it's in favorable conditions, but its not too organized as of now. Meh, 50.1786468374878743902% Chance. -Winter123 19:13, 17 July 2006 (UTC) :And how are you so sure that it has a warm core? The water temps are only borderline up there. People like Jeff Masters have noted that it is possibly subtropical, but he knows he can't be 100.0% sure. —BazookaJoe 19:39, 17 July 2006 (UTC) ::Oh, I know all. -Winter123 21:24, 17 July 2006 (UTC) :::I noticed it too and I nearly had a heart attack when I saw it. But 60° temps? Vince even formed in like, what, 68°, 70°? Too cold. It might, might be noticed by the NHC in post analysis. As for the Invest, I predict a burst of convection in its future. We could have TD two by atleast tomorrow, IMO. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 22:00, 17 July 2006 (UTC) ::: (EDIT: Ahem, I would like to point out to all reading this that this is one of the most correct prediction I've ever posted. I rock. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 23:35, 29 March 2007 (UTC)) ::::I read that water temperatures were in the upper 70s, not the lower 60s. And I'll bet the reason the NHC never named it is because if it was indeed a subtropical storm that it only barely made it and that it's not going to be for too long, and it's moving well away from any land areas, not because a cyclone has rarely formed that far north in July. bob rulz 00:33, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :::::But that's rediculous too. Just because a storm isn't going to affect anybody doesn't mean it doesn't exist. They clearly did not want this to exist, and that's why they used the "it's part of a front so it's extratopical" scapegoat. And besides, this looks like it will scrape Newfoundland. -Winter123 03:07, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :::::: I'm sure that's not their intention - if made things not exist that they didn't want to exist, I'm sure they wouldn't have announced the unnamed subtropical storm last year. —AySz88 ^-^ 03:55, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :::::::But it DOES exist!! *runs away crying like a little girl, arms flailing* -Winter123 05:47, 18 July 2006 (UTC) Okay, I'm back. FOUR meteorologists at Accuweather agree that this should have been TS Beryl, including THE hurricane expert Joe Bastardi! 1,2 (scroll down),3 and quote from bastardi. AMAZING Twilight image of it-Winter123 06:50, 18 July 2006 (UTC) What's going on at NHC? That storm in June that flooded the US east coast, and now this? If they quack like a duck etc. why don't they call them ducks? Only to declare them tropical storms in the post mortem? 87.122.45.0 12:21, 18 July 2006 (UTC) Just as a reminder, this thread is for 97L, the disturbance to the southeast of South Carolina. The storm south of Newfoundland is the thread above this (the AOI). This storm is getting better organized, per a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement just released. 000 WONT41 KNHC 181221 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 820 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER STEWART We'll see what it is later on today, but it won't be long until the next system. :) --Hurricanehink (talk) 12:42, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :This thing already looks better organized than that tropical depression in the West Pacific. bob rulz 14:04, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::TCFA issued! -- WmE 14:13, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :::Not only that, but TCFAs now seem to have model plots superimposed on them. Cool! --'Coredesat' talk. o.o;; 14:21, 18 July 2006 (UTC) Thank you, but I managed to get it on. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:01, 18 July 2006 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two NRL has it as 2nd tropical depression -- WmE 14:38, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :NHC has declared it. Chacor 14:39, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::The NHC page is really, really busy. I can't load it. -- WmE 14:43, 18 July 2006 (UTC) TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. :::That's the first few important lines. Chacor 14:46, 18 July 2006 (UTC) Yea, I can't load it either. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:46, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::TD TWO!! WHOOOHOOO!!!! After like 5 invests! TS warning up for North Carolina. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 14:51, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :::Oh I see you already posted that. Shocking reality came in and I just realized this is aiming at North Carolina. Yikes. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 14:53, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :::I need to calm down. (takes a nerve pill) I'm better. Sorry. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 14:54, 18 July 2006 (UTC) How much longer until I can view the page? I wonder... íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:56, 18 July 2006 (UTC) For the benefit of those who can't access the advisory, here it is in full. (PD - NHC - NOAA) Chacor 14:59, 18 July 2006 (UTC) 000 WTNT32 KNHC 181433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 ...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...32.5 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Sea surface temperature off North Carolina is 84 degrees F http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002. Think this could blow up into a hurricane? Simesa 15:15, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :The NHC doesn't call for one, though they've been udnerestimating storms in the Pacific recently. They do call for a 65 mph TS, which is close to a hurricane. I give it a 40% chance of becoming one. —Cuiviénen 15:52, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::So, a recon is now enroute to Td-2. Perhaps we'll se Beryl at the next advisory. -- WmE 16:19, 18 July 2006 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two seems to be a wanna-be TS Beryl as the Hurricane Central of the National Weather Service says. Alastor Moody (talk) 17:21, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :::Ah ha! Life! I knew one would sneak up on us. Looks good on the floater satellite. My personal belief is that if it does affect North Carolina, it will be a brush and not a landfall. I also don't believe it will become a hurricane. Not enough time to strengthen that much before it reaches cooler waters, not to mention interaction with land. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 17:47, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::::In reality (not NHC fantasy world), this should be Chris, yesterdays should have been Beryl. Anyways, you think this has a chance of going up the coast into New England?? I do. But I dont think it will become a hurricane. -Winter123 18:03, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::::SIDE-NOTE: In response to 87.122.45.0 up above, I agree, The system you were talking about was 91L invest. That looked like a Depression, PROVIDED there was a surface low. NHC said they "couldn't find a surface low," but I REALLY dont trust them anymore. :::::It should really be Debby, because in addition to the storm yesterday, there was 91L.INVEST, which caused that flooding in June. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 18:34, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::::Here is the loop of the unnamed TS yesterday, since I dont know where else to post it. Maybe in the post-analysis, NHC... AGAIN... -Winter123 18:13, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :Ok then. Back on subject. NHC gives a 5% chance of a Hurricane Beryl. Only 5%. That's it. I'd like to see Hurricane Beryl, but I don't think we'll get a hurricane just yet. Then again, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma were all expected to peak at 125mph last year. Hmmm..... [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 18:50, 18 July 2006 (UTC) 35kts according to the NRL. --Ajm81 19:13, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :Yes, but it is not TS Beryl until the NHC says so.--Nilfanion (talk) 19:16, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::Well, according to the latest discussion: ::RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT THAT CAME IN AFTER SOME OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS WERE ISSUED INDICATE 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS TO AT LEAST 35 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... OR TCU PRODUCT... WILL ISSUED SHORTLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BERYL. ::Why does all of the interesting stuff start to happen when I have to go out of town and lose access to the Internet?! bob rulz 20:59, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :::Believe me, you're not alone. When I used to have stronger ties in another online community (as in participation), every time I went out of town something extremely good/bad would happen. It was always SOMETHING. When I left to Washington D.C. on October 15th 2005, while I was gone Wilma exploded. -- RattleMan 21:10, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::::That's not as bad as when I lost my Internet for 2 weeks....during Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath. I don't know how I survived that...(no, not affected by it, just happened at that time). bob rulz 16:42, 20 July 2006 (UTC) Tropical Storm Beryl Now, we have Beryl. -- WmE 20:59, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :Here would be that tropical cyclone update: SHORTLY BEFORE 445 PM CDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46-47 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...OR 29.74 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN CYCLOEN ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 40 MPH IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM BERYL. THIS NEW STORM STATUS WILL BE REFLECTED IN NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GRAPHICS PRODUCTS AND ALSO IN THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 8 PM EDT. --'Coredesat' talk. o.o;; 21:04, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::Who's gonna start the article? íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 21:22, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :::Looks like someone already did. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 22:03, 18 July 2006 (UTC) ::::Tropical Storm Beryl seems to be have deep convction but sort-of lacks rapid intensifying. Also, I wonder if Beryl may make landfall in North Carolina? Alastor Moody (talk) 23:04, 18 July 2006 (UTC) I come back after power being out for 24 hours (tornado on my street) to this...wow! CrazyC83 23:03, 18 July 2006 (UTC) :Lol, I got power back after Charley and by then Danielle, Earl, and Frances had formed. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 00:35, 19 July 2006 (UTC) Wow, you guys are quick. The NHC hasn't long put this up. Pobbie Rarr 00:52, 19 July 2006 (UTC) Beryl is over 79 deg F water now - zero chance of getting a hurricane? Simesa 02:46, 19 July 2006 (UTC) We need a track map. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 02:51, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :not yet! TimL 03:21, 19 July 2006 (UTC) ::We can update it more than once, you know. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 03:23, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :::What would be the point? TimL 03:40, 19 July 2006 (UTC) ::::Uh oh, Beryl seems to have shifted. Edgeing closer and closer to New England.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/234850.shtml?3day [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 04:09, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :::::Meh, if it does hit NE, it will be like Hermine in 2004. No one will notice. —Cuiviénen 05:19, 19 July 2006 (UTC) ::::::Hermine was funny. Look at it tonight, though. It looks like it is trying to take a page from Olivia's book and form convection all the way around dry air! I also think that "jet" of clouds off the east side is very interesting. Wonder what it means? -Winter123 06:18, 19 July 2006 (UTC) Beryl in now up to 40kts, and new Dvorak numbers suggest 45kts (T 3.0). -- WmE 12:43, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :NHC has just officially strengthened it to 40kt. Also, to answer a common question, Dr. Stewart has included this line: ALSO...THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE. :TS Watch also cancelled. Chacor 14:49, 19 July 2006 (UTC) ::So, is Beryl pronounced like is like Burly, or like Burl (I don't get the Berle thing)? íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:52, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :::"Burly" wouldn't match the spelling "Beryl". It's "Burl". Chacor 14:54, 19 July 2006 (UTC) ::::Oh good. I've been pronouncing it the right way most of the time (I used to say Barrel). íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:57, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :::::Oh...Confused....I've been saying "be-rul" (rhymes with "peril"). doktorb words 15:43, 19 July 2006 (UTC) ::::::Well, I never pronounced it right. I've been saying berul too. You'd say Perül in german. *g* -- WmE 15:54, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :::::::The first TWO of the 2006 season, gives "Ber- il" as the pronounciation. Does that mean Beven and Stewart disagree?--Nilfanion (talk) 16:00, 19 July 2006 (UTC) ::::::::Is that pronunciation a US thing? I'm in the UK, and have never ever heard it pronounced "Berle". Actually, over here there's a comic character called Beryl the Peril - the names are certainly meant to rhyme. Another one for the Transatlantic differences column, then! 86.132.143.62 16:27, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :::::::::FWIW, Dictionary.com has the pronunciation (of the mineral beryl) rhyming with peril. I'm going to continue using that pronunciation - just to be stubborn. --Elliskev 16:29, 19 July 2006 (UTC) ::::::::::Leaves me wondering if NHC use any berleium in their instruments--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 17:49, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :::::::::::Leaves me wondering whether they agree or disagree within the NHC..."TS Beryl is shifting" "no, it's Bear-l" "Burl" "Bear-l"... - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 20:48, 19 July 2006 (UTC) ::::::::::::Gives you insight that (until lately) it seems had been contained within the NWS for years. Welcome to reality. Forecasters do disagree. But a pronounciation lesson in a series of tropical cyclone discussions? Come on! Thegreatdr 16:12, 20 July 2006 (UTC) NRL has 45 kt now. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 20:48, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :NHC has 50kt, now expected to reach 65 mph. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 20:57, 19 July 2006 (UTC) 'Berl'? That's ridiculous! I've only ever heard Beryl pronounced phonetically. Anyway, it's fast running out of warm water. Pobbie Rarr 21:34, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :Weather Channel says "Burl", but I thought it was "Bear-ul" also. Anyways, even if this goes south of cape cod (I think it will go right over Martha's Vineyard), Most of the rain and wind is on the north side, so they will still get hammered with TS conditions. -Winter123 21:58, 19 July 2006 (UTC) ::Yeah, the Weather Channel keeps saying "Burl". Yesterday they're saying "Tropical Storm Burl just formed, North Carlona warnings up kthx". I'm like "Hey, it's 'Bear-il'", and they keep doing it. Some people on MSNBC are pronouncing it both ways. I have always heard "Beryl" pronounced "Bear-il" ("barrel"). -- RattleMan 22:01, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :::there's no way that they have that pronunciation correct. Beryl, the stone, rhymes with peril, as does the female name derived from it. (Just like the stone ruby and the name Ruby sound the same--they're the same word.) —Cuiviénen 22:10, 19 July 2006 (UTC) I've always said "beril", but it isn't as easy to get it right by just reading it, so that's probably why the pronounce it "berle". WotGoPlunk 22:18, 19 July 2006 (UTC) :Problem solved. Weather Channel is WRONG! MAHAHAhAAAHAhAH!!1 *ahem* :Anyways, it's the "e" from "pet" (which sounds like "eh"), and the "e" from "item" (which sounds like a "u")-- :Behr'ul!!! :-Winter123 23:54, 19 July 2006 (UTC) Are we going to have this argument every six years until Beryl is retired?guitarhero777777 02:29, 20 July 2006 (UTC) :I don't think so. 11 PM Discussion: REGARDING THE PRONUNCIATION OF BERYL...A REVIEW OF SEVERAL DICTIONARIES SHOWS THAT BOTH BER'-IL AND BURL ARE ACCEPTED PRONUNCIATIONS...AND IN FACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DIRECTIVE SPECIFIES THE FORMER...TWO SYLLABLE...PRONUNCIATION. THE ONLY BERYL I PERSONALLY KNOW ALSO PRONOUNCES IT BER'-IL. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY CONFUSION. -- RattleMan 02:54, 20 July 2006 (UTC) : Thank God for James Franklin. Common sense prevails at last! Actually, there used to be a comic character called Beryl The Peril. Sounds like a rather apt name for a deadly hurricane (though not this tropical storm). Pobbie Rarr 03:09, 20 July 2006 (UTC) ::Holy crap, so that's settled. Now we can get back to actually talking about the storm. As of now, it is west of the forecast path. I would think that means it will come closer to the cape than they now think. Personally I think it will hit Nantucket. -Winter123 04:44, 20 July 2006 (UTC) :::What storm? Pronouncing names is much cooler than watching tropical storms. That's hilarious to come home and see this. I actually had one meteorologist on one channel call it Burl and one on another channel call it Ber-il. Nice to know I've been saying it the right way. —BazookaJoe 04:56, 20 July 2006 (UTC) ::::Eh, here's the forecast track anyways. It still looks like it is going slightly west of this. We will see exactly where its going by this afternoon, I suppose, when it starts to make the NE turn. -Winter123 06:46, 20 July 2006 (UTC) I don't think it will take much of a turn. I mean, what's there to turn it? On the Unisys image, I see Beryl there all by her lonesome. No immediate fronts or troughs... I'm not doubting the prediction, I just don't think the turn will be as extreme and head directly into Rhode Island, maybe. That would be a change of pace if I were right. (simply by the fact that I was right) [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 13:57, 20 July 2006 (UTC) I think it will turn sharply right - but not until it has almost made landfall. My prediction: right across Cape Cod then into the Bay of Fundy. Fortunately, I don't see any strengthening. CrazyC83 15:28, 20 July 2006 (UTC) :There's no way this thing will strengthen anymore. No more than 5mph, but I'm pretty sure it's done. bob rulz 16:43, 20 July 2006 (UTC) ::It should be downhill from here. The convection's quite a bit weaker now (although the structure is still intact). --'Coredesat' talk. o.o;; 18:12, 20 July 2006 (UTC) Bud is now developing an eye, although it is unclear why it has one since it is not a hurricane. Alastor Moody (talk) 20:02 20 July 2006 (UTC) :This storm is Beryl, and it is not developing an eye. Do you have proof of that? Recon, when last in the system, reported no eye wall. --Hurricanehink (talk) 19:07, 20 July 2006 (UTC) ::Ehh, Alastor, this is just the exposed circulation center. And yeah ist's not Bud, it's Beryl.-- WmE 20:52, 20 July 2006 (UTC) :::What's the difference between an eye and an exposed circulation center. The E.C.C way sound just like a fancy way of saying the eye. Is it the level of organization? guitarhero777777 22:10, 20 July 2006 (UTC) ::::See the article on the subject if you're curious. Runningonbrains 22:54, 20 July 2006 (UTC) The westerlies have kicked in with a vengance...she's being sheared to death! It looks like most of the models were right...the low level center is beginning to detatch from the deep convectionhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html...previous advisories had hinted that the low level center could go north or even northwest if this happened. Runningonbrains 22:57, 20 July 2006 (UTC) :Looks like the center may make LANDFALL on the small island of nantucket! It will be like an eye, though, (lighter winds and less rain) as the worst of the storm will be north of the center. -Winter123 00:16, 21 July 2006 (UTC) ::It too hard to tell, but I'm pretty sure that Beryl made landfall in Nantucket and possibly the Cape. I also have a feeling that Beryl will mantain its "tropicality" (I think that that words not real) over Nova Scotia and when it reenters waters. Because isn't there this big "hot pocket" off of Atlantic Canada that's just as warm as when Juan killed 8 people as a cat. 2. So, we'll have to see. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 13:05, 21 July 2006 (UTC) :::Now extratropical. No more advisories. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:52, 21 July 2006 (UTC) RIP Beryl - see you in 2012! 5 Beryls and never a hurricane...and it is more DEAD than extratropical now... CrazyC83 15:16, 21 July 2006 (UTC) If it is dead, how come there is an 11:00 advisory on the season page that is still calling it a TS? guitarhero777777 16:00, 21 July 2006 (UTC) :b/c it was disclassified by becoming extratropical, not by decreasing winds. as it was not downgraded, the last name, TS Beryl will remain until the NHC takes it off the front page. jj 16:48, 21 July 2006 (UTC) ::I was talking about the advisory and the fact that it was still mentioned as tropical, but that doesn't matter now. It's officially dead. guitarhero777777 19:40, 21 July 2006 (UTC) Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. Try again in 2012! Naraht 20:34, 21 July 2006 (UTC) Beryl is now gone from the NRL, the NHC issues its last advisory on ex-Beryl and the National Weather Service declears Beryl now as an extratropical low. I say we won't have another system probably until next month. User:Alastor Moody (talk) 20:57, 21 July 2006 (UTC) Landfall Advisory 12 stated that the center made landfall on Nantucket. Even with it being a sheared, barely significant system, its rare for this to happen so far north so early in the season. Does anyone know the earliest tropical system to make landfall on New England/Canada? I remember Bertha 10 years ago, but i would think there would be something earlier... Runningonbrains 22:47, 21 July 2006 (UTC) :Yup, it made landfall allright. Here's the offical graphic to prove it. As for your question... I have no idea, but I am also curious. :Bertha made landfall on NC first though... I wonder what storms have made landfall on ONLY New England earlier than this.... (or for that matter, anywhere north of NC) -Winter123 02:51, 22 July 2006 (UTC) :Well, we can look at NE storms all by themselves: Carol, Edna, Bob, Gloria, Esther, Hermine, Great New England. That's all the ones that come to mind. All of those are August or later. —Cuiviénen 15:10, 22 July 2006 (UTC) ::I can't recall any first landfalling (not brushing) storms north of NC this early either...of course the worst hurricane for the Mid-Atlantic (Agnes) was in June, but it was a tropical depression at the time and came in from Florida. CrazyC83 20:21, 22 July 2006 (UTC) :::Think that's a sign of the conditions necessary for more than normal activity directed towards the Northeast, like many people think? bob rulz 03:07, 23 July 2006 (UTC)